Truth Bear — Cross-Line Cascade & Leading Signals for AI Agents (GAUGE engine)

[BATCH+PROOF] Stablecoin death samples - a neutral record: the full pre-mortem snapshot of terminated stablecoins (price, supply, collateral, redemption) plus lifecycle context (termination type, confirmed death date, days alive). Forensic depth for base-rate and post-mortem work, not a rating and n

[SIGNAL+PROOF] Demand record for one x402 service (?service=): demand_class (REAL/SOLO/PROBE/WASH), calls_30d, unique_payers_30d, score_total, liveness_state, lifecycle, record_hash. Model demand-v1, refreshed daily from the public CDP catalogue; score_total orders, not rates. DEGRADED DELIVERY, see

[BATCH+PROOF] Full x402 service demand roster, latest day: demand_class, calls_30d, unique_payers_30d, score_total, liveness_state, lifecycle, record_hash per service. Model demand-v1, refreshed daily from the public CDP catalogue; unique_payers_30d is a lower bound, never a sum. DEGRADED DELIVERY,

[BATCH+PROOF] x402 service graveyard - services that vanished from the census. THRESHOLD stated plainly: listed on FIRST confirmed absence (confirm_absences=1), NOT multi-day confirmation - only two snapshot days exist, which cannot support a streak test. Rows are hash-backed and recompute offline w

[SIGNAL+PROOF] Census record for one stablecoin (?symbol=): market cap, price, depeg state, lifecycle and time series, each with record_hash. Descriptive only, never a forecast or advice. No data -> 422 no_charge, not billed.

[BATCH+PROOF] Full stablecoin census, latest day, ranked by market cap; lifecycle flags terminated and depegged. Add ?verifiable=1 and every row carries _hash_core so you can recompute the hash offline without trusting us. Descriptive only, never a forecast or advice. No data -> 422 no_charge, not b

[BATCH+PROOF] Stablecoin death register - terminated below 0.10 or persistently absent. Add ?verifiable=1 for per-row _hash_core, fully offline-recomputable. A neutral observation record: not a rating, not an endorsement. Descriptive only, never a forecast or advice. No data -> 422 no_charge, not bi

Settlement evidence v0 for prediction-market and dispute workflows: did an issuer file a given SEC EDGAR form before your cutoff? Returns THREE SEPARATED TIMES (event / disclosure / cutoff), a resolution_status of resolved, no_authoritative_source, ambiguous or conflicting, and candidate_sources. We

Proposer feed for prediction-market settlement: SEC EDGAR official facts mapped to a machine-friendly answer / timestamp / evidence shape for automated proposal and dispute flows. Three separated times, explicit resolution_status, candidate sources listed. We describe what was filed - the adjudicati

[SIGNAL+PROOF] One official signal record for any signal_id and entity: current reading against the OFFICIAL threshold ladder (band, distance-to-action) plus a 5-year same-season percentile so you can tell routine from unusual. 180+ signals across macro, weather, hazard, shipping, filings, crypto an

Add-on, the official ruler: the band and threshold ladder published by the source agency, its classification, and distance-to-action. NOT every line has an official ruler - pure market quotes do not. When it does not, you get 422 with no_charge:true and reason:no-ruler-for-this-line and you are NOT

Add-on, calibrated units: normalized_index and pct_to_action so readings compare across stations. When the line has no calibration basis you get 422 with no_charge:true and reason:no-calibrated-for-this-line, and are NOT billed. Every record carries an offline-recomputable record_hash.

Add-on, statistical strata: share of the last 5 years spent in each official band for this day-of-year, the percentile bands, and where the current reading falls. Backtestable, and stated as approximate. Descriptive only, never a forecast or advice. No data -> 422 no_charge, not billed.

Add-on, historical placement: seasonal percentile for the current point, frequency, the percentile table, and the method and source used to compute them. Descriptive only, never a forecast or advice. No data -> 422 no_charge, not billed.

Add-on, air quality for one location: US AQI category and PM2.5 reading from EPA and CAMS official feeds. Descriptive only, never a forecast or advice. No data -> 422 no_charge, not billed. Every record carries an offline-recomputable record_hash.

Add-on, precipitation for one location: daily rainfall plus 30-day accumulated wet-dry drought context from ERA5. Descriptive only, never a forecast or advice. No data -> 422 no_charge, not billed. Every record carries an offline-recomputable record_hash.

[3-LEG] Local three-leg environment chain, one location (?loc=): leading air quality (AQI) -> current precipitation, rain and 30-day dry-wet -> realized nearest river stage and streamflow (confirmation gate). A chain, not one reading: confidence = how many legs are lit, in order. Sources: EPA/CAMS,

Taiwan first-party official readings in one call: PLA air and naval activity around Taiwan (Ministry of National Defense), central bank reference FX rates (CBC), TAIEX and sector indices (TWSE), significant earthquakes and typhoon status (CWA). Sources most providers cannot reach. We restate what ea

Japan official readings in one call plus an independent cross-agency check: JMA seismic intensity (shindo), RSMC Tokyo typhoon analysis, Ministry of Finance JGB yields across seven tenors, and the Japan rows of BIS and FRED. The same earthquakes appear as JMA measured them and as USGS measured them,

[3-LEG] Agriculture chain, one grain belt (?loc=us-iowa): leading soil drought (USDM D0-D4) -> current heat stress and growing degree days -> realized crop vigour VHI - did the drought actually reach the crop (confirmation gate). A chain, not one reading: confidence = how many legs are lit, in order

[3-LEG] Power-grid chain, one grid region (?loc=us-ercot): leading demand pressure from heating and cooling degree days -> current renewable availability, solar and wind -> realized energy inflation (CPI energy year-over-year) and gas price (confirmation gate). A chain, not one reading: confidence =

[3-LEG] Regulatory filing chain, one issuer (?entity=AMC): leading NT late-filing notices, a distress leading indicator -> current 8-K material events graded by item severity -> realized Form 4 insider transactions (confirmation gate). A chain, not one reading: confidence = how many legs are lit, in

[3-LEG] Wildfire chain, one fire-risk region (?entity=us-california): leading fire weather - hot, dry and windy -> current active fire detections from NASA FIRMS satellite thermal anomalies -> realized downwind smoke impact (confirmation gate). A chain, not one reading: confidence = how many legs ar

[3-LEG] Aviation ground-stop chain, one airport (?entity=ewr): leading aviation weather - METAR ceiling, visibility, convection and gusts -> current FAA NAS ground stops and delay programs -> realized delay (confirmation gate). A chain, not one reading: confidence = how many legs are lit, in order.

[3-LEG] Land border chain, one crossing (?entity=laredo-world-trade): leading upstream pressure - lead traffic, staffing and inspection intensity -> current current CBP border wait times by lane -> realized commercial freight delay (confirmation gate). A chain, not one reading: confidence = how many

[3-LEG] Seismic activity chain, one seismic zone (?entity=california-san-andreas): leading swarm rate, USGS micro-event rate rising - DESCRIPTIVE and explicitly not a prediction -> current current max magnitude and count -> realized felt and impact reports (confirmation gate). A chain, not one readi

[3-LEG] Drug shortage chain, one therapeutic class (?entity=oncology): leading new-shortage incidence from openFDA new listings, which leads the burden peak -> current current active shortages in the class -> realized resolution rate (confirmation gate). A chain, not one reading: confidence = how ma

[3-LEG] Per-drug shortage chain, one drug (?entity=carboplatin): leading supply narrowing - available labelers against total listed -> current current FDA shortage status per NDC -> realized affected presentations (confirmation gate). A chain, not one reading: confidence = how many legs are lit, in

[3-LEG] Grid reliability chain, one balancing authority (?entity=us-ercot): leading EIA-930 day-ahead demand forecast approaching recent peak, about one day of lead -> current current demand against capacity tightness -> realized reserve and interchange response (confirmation gate). A chain, not one

[3-LEG] Severe convection and hail chain, one convective region (?entity=tornado-alley-core): leading SPC Day-1 outlook with CAPE, CIN and shear - hours of lead -> current current storm reports -> realized hail and wind damage reports (confirmation gate). A chain, not one reading: confidence = how m

[3-LEG] Hurricane chain, one basin (?entity=atlantic|epacific|cpacific): leading NHC official 2/7-day genesis probability (NHC-quoted, not our forecast) -> current active storms - category, wind, pressure, position -> realized official watches, warnings, landfall (confirmation gate). A chain, not on

[3-LEG] Drought chain, one drought region (?entity=us-california): leading precipitation deficit, soil moisture and snowpack -> current the OFFICIAL US Drought Monitor class and area coverage -> realized streamflow and impact (confirmation gate). A chain, not one reading: confidence = how many legs

[BATCH+PROOF] All entities for one signal at their latest reading, with band, frequency_label and percentile columns so you can rank across stations and screen for the unusual in one call. Cross-station comparison is the point: one river gauge alone tells you little, 200 of them ranked by distance-t

[RECONCILIATION] Market-implied against officially-realized, side by side: Kalshi implied levels versus BLS official prints, aligned indicator by indicator, with the divergence quantified. The alignment key is returned so you can verify the pairing yourself. We show both numbers and the gap - the re

[TIME SERIES EXPORT] Full retained series for one signal and entity (?days=, ?format=json or csv): every snapshot up to days (default 400, cap 1000) with snapshot_date, observed_at, data_age_hours, current, band and record_hash. For research, actuarial and base-rate work. Free 7-snapshot shape previ

Triangle logic chain corroboration verdict for a given line_id or country/theme combination. Returns the latest computed verdict (consistent/inconsistent/divergent/insufficient) with the two signal values and confidence score. Each line tests whether two officially sourced signals move in the expect

Tiered payment receipt (tier 2): pay once with x402 and get back a short-lived receipt token that /pay/verify checks for you. The tier is fixed by the path - you do not send it. Optional ?ref= carries your own opaque reference, such as a query hash, straight through to the receipt. This mints a rece

Tiered payment receipt (tier 3): pay once with x402 and get back a short-lived receipt token that /pay/verify checks for you. The tier is fixed by the path - you do not send it. Optional ?ref= carries your own opaque reference, such as a query hash, straight through to the receipt. This mints a rece